Flower for the tomb of Technical Progress

            We loved him very much; we believe in him whole our life; we thought he is still young in heart and will be with us many years to come. And now he is dead. Someone said that he was dead already about 40 years – we just did not pay attention. How it may happen?

     We think that most common question now is “What are you talking about?” It is very good question indeed. What is the Technical Progress?  We have to look back to answer it. Fire and the wheel drastically enhanced ability of human being. But stove can’t be considered as progress. While more convenient, it did not bring any big new idea. Microwave oven did, because it based on new concept. It was invented in 1946. Velocipede, the father of bicycle, was invention not because had two wheels (it actually had three), but because was efficiently using human power.We define technical progress, as implementation of new idea, which freely accepted by many human beings as a much better way to think and live. As usual definition is our weakest link. But at least tax increases and wars are excluded, because are not new and not freely accepted.

            We’ll start our discussion from the travel. Combinations – horse and wheels, as well as boat and sail existed for whole known history. We consider that putting little more or less horses or wheels are not significant improvements. It applies as well to the modification of the cart or carriage. This means that for many thousand years the ways of travel did not changed. In 18th century steam engine made huge difference. New types of engines followed and train and car become parts of the life in the beginning and in the end of 19^th century. 20^th century gave us planes and space travels. The most advanced and powerful engine now runs on atomic energy. But the last real changes had been done not later than in 1960’s. Until that time when previous mass travel vehicle reached its highest level, the next one have been born and in 10-20 years become from new and exotic to the boringly common. When planes achieved their status as most fast and convenient way to travel with Boeing 747 and European Concorde, space travel started. In July 1969 only 8 years after first manned mission to space, Armstrong made “one giant leap for mankind”. In that time everybody believed that in the end of century moon would become very romantic place for honeymooners – right on track by definition, expensive, not very crowded and with some gravitational help for the hands of groom. From this prediction only ‘not very crowded’ is true. We are still on Earth and trip from Los Angeles to Sydney is about 14 hours. This is our real Space Odyssey 2010 not Jupiter or Saturn Mission. Where are all those beautiful stratoplanes and spacegliders? Instead Boeing is building Dreamliner: it will use 20 percent less fuel. How exciting these dreams are!

             With fuel in mind it is easy to switch to discussion of the use of atomic energy. In mid of 1960’s scientists promised that soon nuclear fusion will give us power for everyday need. The desparate housewives started preparing money for the new H-oven. Your friend would be jealous to hear, that your Ford Nucleon uses only one glass of heavy water for 10,000 miles. Who would not, if still driving gasoline car? It is so archaic, so first half of 20^th century. And the price of gasoline… May be based on those scientific promises in US last order for a nuclear power plant was in 1970s’. Now they will start build them again. Do you know how long it took from creation of A-bomb to the first nuclear power plant to produce electricity? Only 9 years. What did we achieve energy wise for the triple of that time? So if you still obsessed with progress, better don’t sing: ‘I believe I can fly, fusion power helps me touch the sky’. This song is at least 40 years old and still is only a dream.

            Now is time of the dessert. Internet, iPod and the cell phones in our life. You may think that finally we got some clear signs of the progress. You already have a bad phone that makes bad pictures, but very good music. You will have good phone that works as Web-Cam, makes video, pays your bills, plays Halo 8, linked to your driver license. And one Goo-goo Nest (or better to say Tube?) in your home will transfer all today information to your Googlibrary. Now all your life in this device and saved forever. What else?  In the comedy “Blast from the Past” the main character was born in 1962 and did not see outside world until 1997. He excited to watch TV “in color” and impressed by computer in home. This is the only ‘drastic changes’ creators of the movie can find for the last 40 years. He also was happy to see the sky and girls, which is more understandable for person spent 35 years underground. But be reasonable. Even if you love new iToy, which also ‘in color”, do not consider it as a progress. It is just miniaturization of the computer processors and smart packaging.

            Now we come to the serious part. What can we expect from the future? There are two possibilities. First – current situation is very temporary, same as physics stability just before the beginning of the 20^th century’s discoveries. Second – this is stagnation of the human mind after previous technical renaissance. See previous post ‘All continents are created equal?” for potential reasons. What prevented our civilization from inventing and using machinery for all previous thousands years? Nothing, except brainpower. The size of Roman Empire had been big enough to appreciate the quick transportation and airmail. They just didn’t get it. Something just did not turn right in their brains. Now – it stopped clicking in ours. As usual, there are no scientific explanations in the next statement. But looks like human reached its capacity not just to create, but also to handle and manage result of its own creations. We don’t think that we’re going back to Stone Age, but we’re not going to the Stars either. We should stop to expect much brighter technological future.

        We’re wishing sweet dreams for those, who disagree.